Author Topic: Oil Market under development  (Read 477 times)

patson

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 915
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2018, 11:19:13 am »
yeppo...still working on the oil market model ;)


Too predictable is not good

I want to make it mildly predictable, and when u think u have it the market is going to crazy  ;D ;D ;D
Like Like x 1 View List

losgatitospeligrosos

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 53
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2018, 01:21:11 pm »
The possibility of oil going to either $20 - bloodbath competition on all routes or $150 - have to shed tons of routes, downgrade capacity etc. is very exciting. Of course, most of the time, the price should be somewhere in the $50-$100 range... but if it is just $70 + or - $10, it won't make much difference at all.

patson

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 915
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2018, 03:48:38 pm »
playing with the algorithm for now

In my simulation of 10000 weeks, it had dipped as low as slightly below 40 and as high as above 100. Though most of the time (90%+ sample) it's around 50 - 90 per barrel

bluesky

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 105
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2018, 05:19:32 pm »
I was messing with the contract duration, and I think it's not working correctly. Or I don't understand it.

When I first tried it, the maximum barrel price under contract was the $3 from the initial costs, +an increasing number depending on duration, 300 weeks was increasing the price by $7.8, to a total maximum of market price + $3 initial costs + $7.8 for duration. I don't remember the market price at the time, but I believe it was ~$55. I din't test it with a 150w duration.

The price is now $48.94, a 300w contract brings the price to $59.47, that's +$10.53, +$3 for initial costs. That's ok, that makes lower prices not absurdly lucrative.
But then, a 150 week contract bring the price to $70 (+$3). That doesn't make* any sense afaik.
Even worse, durations >151 (until 300), all have the price fixed at $59.47. (the same as a 75w contract).

Is this intended?

--Edit: The price is $50 now, every 1 week increase the barrel price by 0.135 (so it's actually 0.13-0.14-0.13-0.14...) until it reaches $70 at w150. After w150 it's $60.
I don't know how you're increasing the price per week, but it seems you're doing something like totalprice = marketprice + ((average -  market price) / 150) * duration for the first 150 weeks, after that IDK
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 08:08:19 pm by bluesky »

patson

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 915
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2018, 07:34:02 pm »
Ya thanks I think the code has a logic problem when setting the price based on duration. Will fix that once i get home :)

patson

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 915
    • View Profile
Re: Oil Market under development
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2018, 09:36:00 pm »
Fixed :)